With the Pakatan Rakyat coalition being in a disarray now, two analysts have expressed confidence that BN will not survive the next general election.
Speaking at a conference on the 13th general election organised by Universiti Tun Abdul Razak (Unirazak) yesterday, Serdang MP Ong Kian Ming said he still stood by his 2013 prediction that BN will lose the next general election.
However, what Ong is not willing to predict is which party will rule Putrajaya next.
Asked what would happen to Pakatan during the next general election, Ong said: “I don’t know.”
Ong explained that political allegiances were still in a state of flux, especially with PAS cutting off ties with DAP.
Thus, there is the possibility of new coalitions being formed ahead of the next election, such as the one mooted by DAP parliamentary leader Lim Kit Siang.
“I think that possibility is still something that can be striven for by certain quarters.
“I think this is one possibility for a coalition that can be formed before the next general election to take on the BN, and perhaps, if my prediction is right, the BN will be defeated by this coalition,” Ong said.
In March, following the renewed push by PAS to implement hudud in Kelantan, Lim mooted a new “Save Malaysia” coalition to defend the core principles of the Federal Constitution.
In his presentation earlier, Ong – a political scientist before joining politics himself – said BN’s eventual defeat would be caused by the rising cost of living and the influence of former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad, among others.
He also pointed out that BN has more “marginal seats” to defend than Pakatan.
Another speaker, Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs (Ideas) chief executive Wan Saiful Wan Jan (photo), concurred with Ong’s prediction.
Wan Saiful said BN component parties such as MCA, MIC and Gerakan were in shambles and thus would contribute to BN’s defeat in the next election.
“If Pakatan can stay together, it will have the chance of replacing BN. But even if Pakatan cannot stay together, I think the BN government, as we understand it today, will probably not be there anymore,” he said. – M’kini